Euro 24: Tale of Two Brackets

The English press may have no use for Gareth Southgate, but the scheduling gods certainly have a soft spot for the English Manager. After an entirely uninspiring series of three group matches, the path through the knockout stage seems paved with gold for the Premier League centric squad. There is a definite disparity between the two sides of the Euro 24 bracket. On one side are tournament front runners Germany, Spain, France and Portugal. On the other side of the bracket is…England. Despite all the often-warranted criticism levelled at the English team, Southgate’s squad did top their division, something that France failed to do. By winning the group, England faces Slovakia rather than Germany in its Round of 16 match.

Things are not all rosy for England, of course. There is the small matter of their non-existent attack which was expected to be a strength entering this tournament. Jude Bellingham has disappeared after scoring in England’s opening match. Harry Kane opened the scoring in the second match before becoming his otherwise anonymous self in these European Championships. Bellingham has not been creating from his Number 10 position. Harry Kane has been continually dropping back into the midfield rather than being the point of England’s spear. Phil Foden appears lost on the left wing as he enviously watches Bellingham patrol Foden’s desired turf in the center of things. Cole Palmer, even in limited minutes, provided more than Bukayo Saka on the right of the attack when the Chelsea star was finally given a chance late against Slovenia. Anthony Gordon came on with Palmer and looked a much better option than Foden on the left side.

Still and all, the grinding, painful to watch goalless draw with Slovenia was all England needed to claim the top spot in its group and ease its path forward. In fairness to England, its desultory form was partly attributable to group opponents who were quite happy to sit back and absorb pressure, not having the weapons to go forward as the English are at least thought to possess. Breaking such opponents down requires creativity, such as the seldom used Palmer can potentially provide, and pace which Gordon can surely provide.

Ironically, England’s outmatched Round of 16 opponent, Slovakia, might well be expected to come out in a low block as well. Should England advance, their possible quarterfinal opponent in either Italy or Switzerland are also clubs which present more defensive solidity than attacking flair and will have stopping England’s attack at the top of their to do list. Italy, of course, knocked England out of Euro 20 in game deciding penalty kicks after a grinding 1-1 deadlock. England may not face a club willing to come out and play with them until reaching the final against one of the other tournament favorites. Given the stakes at that point, both finalists may play conservatively. If England can slog through to such a final, Southgate should get some plaudits despite the seemingly easy path on paper.

Some of the powers on the other side of the bracket have failed to cover themselves in glory this tournament. France fell to second in its group when Manager Didier Deschamp’s squad drew 1-1 with an already eliminated Poland in France’s final group match. The French press is as unhappy with Deschamps’ unimaginative approach as the English are with Southgate. The French, like the English, drew twice after an opening win and scored just two goals in group play. Kylian Mbappe’s broken nose contributed to that. Unbroken was a France defense which allowed just a single goal over those three matches. Arsenal’s William Saliba has emerged as a monster in back for France after a long stint in Deschamps’ doghouse. Former Chelsea star N’Golo Kante has been a feel-good story in a triumphant return to France’s midfield. Unlike England, France fell victim to an overperforming side in their group.

Austria shocked the Netherlands 3-2 in their final group match to leapfrog over France with a second win of the tournament while the Frenchmen were drawing with puckish Poland. Former Manchester United and current Austria Manager Ralf Rangnick is being acclaimed as a hero after leading his club to the top of the group over more highly regarded France and the Netherlands. Austria and the Netherlands could now face a rematch in the weaker side of the bracket should the two sides survive their next matches versus Türkiye and Romania, respectively.

France, on the strong other side of the bracket, will face Belgium before a possible quarterfinal matchup with Portugal. The Portuguese, another tournament favorite, turned in an ugly performance in their final group match. Manager Roberto Maritnez made eight changes to rest numerous players against Georgia on Wednesday. Portugal had already clinched the top spot in its group and had nothing to play for from a seeding standpoint. The momentum of a team playing well in the tournament was shattered, however, in a 2-0 loss to Georgia. Numerous starters will now return to the pitch as Portugal will try to regain its form against Slovenia in the Round of 16. Success there could lead to that glamor match with France.

The other quarterfinal on the strong side of the bracket could feature a tantalizing Spain versus Germany matchup. Spain was the only club to win all three of its group matches and now faces surprising Georgia in the knockout stage. Italy also advanced from Spain’s Group of Death which saw Croatia fail to advance after two heartbreaking draws in which the Croatians conceded the tying goals against Albania and Italy in the 95th and 98th minutes, respectively. Luka Modric exits the tournament after he became the oldest player to score in the European Championships in Croatia’s draw with the Italians.

Germany’s 1-1 draw with Switzerland ignited a debate familiar to Premier League fans. Kai Havertz has begun missing chances in recent matches reminiscent of his days at Chelsea. Niclas Fullkrug, a true striker for Borussia Dortmund, entered the match versus Switzerland in the 76th minute and delivered the equalizer in stoppage time, his second goal of the tournament as a substitute. Will Manager Julian Nagelsmann adjust his line-up to incorporate a true striker when the Germans face Denmark on Saturday?